Monday, October 5, 2009

Predicitons vs. Reality

This is almost comical, but here we go -

Predictions vs Reality

Total wins - Predicted - 94

Wow...that was a laugher. Knowing the issues facing this team going in, I only trimmed 3 wins off their record. Sheesh. The boys ended with a ridiculous 83 wins.

1st NL Central by 5 games

Ok, I didn't expect the Cubs to be a remarkably 500 as they were, but nobody saw St. Louis coming. And by nobody, I mean really nobody. Cubs ended up diown by 7.5 games, remarkably still in second place.

Team Batting Average - .264

I wasn't too far off on this, all things considered. The Cubs could hit just fine. It was situational hitting where they failed, spectacularly, every single freakin' day...Anyway. .255.

Milton Bradley games - 96

Let's add a caveat here - I should've said Milton Bradley full games. He ended up with 124 games, BUT he pinch hit 16 times, which brings the total down to 108. Add to that the 15 days he SHOULD'VE spent on the DL at the beginning of the season, but for Jim Hendry's pride, and the total is down to 93. However, Jimmy did finally sack up and suspend "The Mistake", so 108 sounds right, and only 12 more than I thought.

Fukudome games - 100

Fuky appeared in 146 games this year, but again, only started 129. Bear in mind that Fuky was consistently average this year, with the ups not nearly as up, and the downs not nearly, thankfully, as down. So he got more starts - still a waste of money.

Rich Harden Starts - 24

Rich was the only Cubs starter to pitch a full season, until he was shut down in Mid-September. Considering most of the civilized world thought he'd be having shoulder surgery in June, that's remarkably consistent. He started 26 games. Boo yah.

Rich Harden Starts of 7+ innings - 5

5. Boo yah. One freakin' predicition thus far. Yippee for freakin' me.

Over/under 200 innnings for starters -
Dempster - over
Lilly - over
Zambrano - over
Harden - under
Marshall - under

DL stints affected my three overs and with 200, 177, and 169.1 respectively, I gotta say I whiffed on all three of those. Marshall and Harden - shocker of all shockers didn't climb over 145. Next year I'll make it more challenging and set it at 185.

No surprises there.

Home Runs -
The Hoff - 13 9

Initially predicted 13, then switched it to 9. He ended up with 10. Minor league stint didn't help his numbers. Nor did his .239 BA.

Bradley - 25

"The Mistake" managed only 12 home runs. Out slugged by Aramis "82 games" Ramirez. Nice job dipsh*t.

Lee - 20

Lee made a strong comeback this year after breaking his wrist 2 years ago. Finished the year with a team-leading 35. He may be back ladies and gents. But remember, and I will next year too - he's a slow starter.

Ramirez - 33

Only played in 82 games, and hit 15. Multiply that by 2 - that's 30. So I was close.

Soriano - 35

Dude, "manning up" does not always mean playing hurt. Sometimes it takes a bigger man to acknowledge that you're not helping your team. You only hit 20 HR and overall sucked worse than you usually did, and I suspect it was largely because you could barely walk for 4 out of 6 months.

Fontenot - 23

This is such a f*cking joke it's barely worth the bandwidth.

Soto - 19

Pot smokin' hippie. Stay of the green stuff and drop another 35 pounds. No more twinkies.

Yes, Fontenot will have more home runs than Lee. - see above comment.

Starters ERA - 4.25
Relievers ERA - 3.85

These two eras are all over the place with all the spot starting etc. Let's put it this weay, for the bulk of the season, starting pitching was NOT the problem.
For the first couple of months, the bullpen was a HUGE problem, but even they got their crap together come August-ish.

Marmol ERA - 2.49

Marmol would've been fine if he hadn't gotten so upset about not being made closer. I don't suspect that was his whole problem, but it was a lot of it. Given the fact that he consistently walked the bases loaded before striking out the side, his 3.41 ERA is a blessing.

Gregg ERA - 3.15

I guess, I really can't explain what I was thinking. Maybe I assumed that Hendry couldn't have had a total clusterf*ck of an offseason and at least ONE move had to have worked out and maybe you wouldn't be that bad. God that was freakin' dumb. 4.72 - Nuff said.

Runs Per Game - 4.89

Off by .5 run - 4.39. Lost way too many games with a 1 or 2 run differential.

Runs Allowed Per Game - 4.35

I was actually really close on this one - 4.17. As I said, the pitching was for the most part, not the problem.

One Run games W - 59%

.421 - I didn't count on having such a crappy bullpen at the start of the year, and a crappy closer for the rest of it.

Home Wins - 52


Road Wins - 42


Once again, off by 11 games - they had to come from somewhere. Cubs gave away a lot of games, both home and road. Their overall record speaks for itself.

So that's it. Of all the prediations I made, I was only right about Rich Freakin' Harden. Good for me. Stay tuned for the season wraps in the coming months.

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